The current banking crisis rolled on with two key developments in late April. The first was the release of several reports from the Federal Reserve detailing the errors that led up to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, blaming poor regulatory oversight combined with an absence of risk management for the failure. Read more
Economic Outlook
Fault Lines: Bank Failures Cause Market Tremors
On March 10 Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed and was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). This was followed by the collapse of Signature Bank (SBNY) and another takeover by the FDIC takeover on March 12. There followed a period of volatility for the banking sector, turmoil in equity and fixed income Read more
Wait and See: Quarterly Economic Report
The year is coming to an end in an atmosphere of anticipation. Will inflation slow? Will the labor market decline further? Will there be a recession? What will the Fed do? High inflation, rising interest rates, and recession fears have made for a rough financial ride in 2022, with falling stock and bond prices pummeling portfolios Read more
Bubble or Balloon? A Housing Market Update
In January 2022, the housing market was at the hottest it had been in 15 years, with a run of new demand spurred by the loosening of pandemic restrictions. As remote work opportunities became more common, some buyers were looking for more space to work from home and found opportunities to move farther from their Read more
The Strong Dollar: Good for U.S., Dangerous for Global Economy
While other currencies are declining, the U.S. dollar is on a roll. An index of the dollar versus major currencies is trading around a two-decade high. The nominal effective exchange rate of the U.S. dollar appreciated by 12 percent between December 31, 2021, and September 26, 2022, according to JPMorgan estimates. During the same period, Read more
Two Sides to the Coin: Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Income Disagree on the Economy
News about the economy usually highlights Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measurement familiar to even the most casual follower of economic news. Most of us know that one of the traditional benchmarks for a recession is two straight quarters of negative GDP. The latest GDP estimate says the economy contracted the equivalent of 0.6% per Read more