Financier and lawyer Kevin Warsh was confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve by the U.S. Senate on May 13 and officially took his position on May 15. The Fed’s dual mandate from Congress is promoting maximum employment and stable prices (i.e., controlling inflation). Warsh’s first meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Read more
Economic Outlook
The Real Price of Oil? It Depends
The severe physical shortage in oil markets and uncertainty over what might happen next in the Iran War has caused disruption over oil futures, with the price of a physical barrel of oil being significantly higher than suggested prices in financial markets. The disconnect is especially stark for Brent, the international benchmark. Dated Brent, which Read more
The Petrodollar Loop
Petrodollars, simply defined, are oil revenues denominated in U.S. dollars. The petrodollar loop is essentially the global practice of pricing oil exclusively in U.S. dollars rather than any other currency and having those dollars recycled into U.S. assets. So, no matter what country is buying oil, they pay the oil-producing country in petrodollars denominated in Read more
Economic Outlook: Fallout from the Iran War
Markets continue to react to minute-by-minute developments regarding the ongoing U.S./Israeli war with Iran, which has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, narrow, strategic waterway in the Persian Gulf through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas pass, as well as affecting the global supply of helium, fertilizer, and aluminum. The Read more
Horns of a Dilemma: Is Stagflation on Its Way?
As the effect of the Trump administration’s fluctuating tariff policies have heightened uncertainty for consumers and the markets, economists have begun to worry about the looming risk of stagflation, an economic condition not seen in the United States since the 1970s. Though the U.S. economy is still in a “strong position” according to the Federal Read more
Shockwaves: Which Way Is Up?
Whether it’s the volatility in the stock market, concerns about tariff-induced inflation, the fluctuation in interest rates, or the growing talk of recession (and stagflation), the economic outlook in April was more fluid and less predictable day-to-day, and that seems unlikely to change any time soon. Even though the Trump administration has suspended its country-by-country Read more