As the effect of the Trump administration’s fluctuating tariff policies have heightened uncertainty for consumers and the markets, economists have begun to worry about the looming risk of stagflation, an economic condition not seen in the United States since the 1970s. Though the U.S. economy is still in a “strong position” according to the Federal Read more
Federal Reserve Policy
What’s the Meaning of This? The Fed Finally Cuts Rates
After many months of punditry and prognostication regarding the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate in 2024, the agency finally did so at its September 17-18 meeting. The Fed lowered the target for the rate by 0.50%, or 50 basis points, to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%. This amount Read more
Dueling Surveys: What’s the Real Employment Story?
The Federal Reserve’s modern statutory mandate, as described in the 1977 amendment to the Federal Reserve Act, is to promote maximum employment and stable prices. These goals are commonly referred to as the dual mandate. High levels of employment are key to a vibrant economy. Maximum employment promotes business investment, thus boosting productivity and the economy’s Read more
A Shear Guessing Game: Will the Fed Cut Rates?
The Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation had gone better than expected until it recently got bogged down. Thus, the effort to combat inflation can’t be called a victory just yet. Though the initial predictions for Fed rate cuts for 2024 ranged from three to six, expectations have shifted dramatically with the market now pricing in Read more
When Not If: Economic Data and The Fed’s Rate Cut(s)
The Federal Reserve increased rate in 2022 and 2023 as the central bank sought to contain surging inflation. Now, in 2024, with price pressures easing and the economy still strong, Fed officials are poised to bring rates down at a slower pace. Because the Fed’s benchmark rate influences lending costs for mortgages, cars, and credit Read more
Aftershocks: Impact of the Banking Crisis
The current banking crisis rolled on with two key developments in late April. The first was the release of several reports from the Federal Reserve detailing the errors that led up to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, blaming poor regulatory oversight combined with an absence of risk management for the failure. Read more