As the effect of the Trump administration’s fluctuating tariff policies have heightened uncertainty for consumers and the markets, economists have begun to worry about the looming risk of stagflation, an economic condition not seen in the United States since the 1970s. Though the U.S. economy is still in a “strong position” according to the Federal Read more
Inflation
A Shear Guessing Game: Will the Fed Cut Rates?
The Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation had gone better than expected until it recently got bogged down. Thus, the effort to combat inflation can’t be called a victory just yet. Though the initial predictions for Fed rate cuts for 2024 ranged from three to six, expectations have shifted dramatically with the market now pricing in Read more
How Inflation is Measured
Inflation has been much in the news during the last few years, with notice of whether the rate is up or down a staple of reports. Inflation is the rate of increase in prices over a given period of time. (Historically, prices have rarely decreased; one example of such deflation would be the Great Depression Read more
When Not If: Economic Data and The Fed’s Rate Cut(s)
The Federal Reserve increased rate in 2022 and 2023 as the central bank sought to contain surging inflation. Now, in 2024, with price pressures easing and the economy still strong, Fed officials are poised to bring rates down at a slower pace. Because the Fed’s benchmark rate influences lending costs for mortgages, cars, and credit Read more
Landing Craft: How Bumpy Will It Be to Ease Inflation?
In recent conversations about the effort to ease inflation, you may have heard about the various landings—from a “soft landing” to a “hard landing” to “no landing” at all. Whichever way we land, we will likely feel some jostling in the economy. What does all of this talk of landings mean? When the Federal Reserve, Read more
The Return of Inflation: Have We Seen This Movie Before?
We last wrote about inflation in May 2021 in a piece titled “Inflation Worries: Will the Tide Riser Higher?” (https://bowenasset.com/inflation-worries-will-the-tide-rise-higher/) A year later, we have an answer to the question: both the inflation rate and the anxiety it causes have increased. A Pew Research survey in April 2022 showed inflation as the dominant concern of Read more