Economic Outlook

Throughout 2023, the U.S. economy has stayed resilient in the face of rapid monetary policy tightening; consumer demand has stayed solid, and the labor market has remained unflinching. Gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for inflation, rose at a 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter, up from a 2% growth rate in the first three Read more

In the first quarter of 2023, the U.S. economy grew by 1.3% on an annualized basis and expanded by less than 0.3% on a quarterly basis. That growth was down from a 2.6% rate in the last three months of 2022, but nonetheless represented a third straight quarter of growth after output contracted in the Read more

The year is coming to an end in an atmosphere of anticipation. Will inflation slow? Will the labor market decline further? Will there be a recession? What will the Fed do? High inflation, rising interest rates, and recession fears have made for a rough financial ride in 2022, with falling stock and bond prices pummeling portfolios Read more

While other currencies are declining, the U.S. dollar is on a roll. An index of the dollar versus major currencies is trading around a two-decade high. The nominal effective exchange rate of the U.S. dollar appreciated by 12 percent between December 31, 2021, and September 26, 2022, according to JPMorgan estimates. During the same period, Read more

News about the economy usually highlights Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measurement familiar to even the most casual follower of economic news. Most of us know that one of the traditional benchmarks for a recession is two straight quarters of negative GDP. The latest GDP estimate says the economy contracted the equivalent of 0.6% per Read more

The U.S. economy is following an unusual trajectory, with weakening output but strong job gains. Gross domestic product (GDP), a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the economy, fell at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.6% in the second quarter, following a contraction of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022. Read more