Given this is an election year, chances are you have heard a lot of economic figures thrown around. (Some are even true.)
While it’s always a good idea to keep up with the economic trends, there is a lot of data out there and it might be difficult for you to keep track. (It’s OK, we’re glad to do it for you.) But here’s a quiz to give you a chance to see how closely you are following what’s happening. See how you stack up.
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1. The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) was $19.3 trillion in January 2017. What would you estimate the GDP as of June 2024?
A. $18.4 trillion. B. $23.9 trillion C.$29.4 trillion D. $15.6 trillion
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2. The value of S&P 500 index was 2263 in January 2017. (The value of the index is calculated by totaling the adjusted market caps of each company in the index and dividing the result by a proprietary divisor.) Where would you estimate the S&P 500 stood as of Sept 30, 2024?
A. 5762 B. 6803 C. 2104 D. 4913
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3. The civilian labor force at the beginning of 2017 was 159.6 million people. How many workers were there as of April 2024?
A. 137 million B.189 million C.158 million D. 168 million
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4. The consumer price index (the monthly rate of inflation) – the rate at which prices rise – was 2.1% in 2017. What was the CPI as of September 2024?
A. 5.6% B. 4.1% C. 1.3% D. 2.4%
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5. Gas cost an average of $2.46 per gallon in the U.S. in January 2017. How much did an average gallon of gas cost as of September 2024?
A.$4.38 B. $5.21 C. $2.76 D. $3.19
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6. Median rent was $1,332 in January 2017. How much do you think the median rent was as of June 2024?
A. $2,053 B. $1,743 C. $3,067 D. $3,975
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7. A dozen eggs cost $1.60 on average in January 2017. Egg prices rose sharply when an avian-influenza outbreak killed millions of birds. How much does a dozen eggs cost as of September 2024?
A. $6.35 B. $4.50 C. $3.20 D. $5.10
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8. How much would your annual income have to be to put you in the top 5% in the U.S.?
A. $290,000 B. $900,000 C.$788,000 D. $450,000
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9. Between 1981 and 2021, $53 trillion moved from the bottom 90% to the top 10%.
True or false?
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10. Rank the most recent annual real GDP growth rate from the fourth quarter of 2019 for these G7 countries from the highest to the lowest as of the second quarter of 2024: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States
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11. The U.S. has run a budget deficit continuously in every fiscal year to 2023, starting in which year?
A. 1997 B. 2002 C. 2010 D. 2021
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12. Food prices are on the rise. How much do you think overall grocery prices went up between January 2021 and June 2024?
A. Between 200-225% B. Between 50-75% C. Between 20-50% D. Between 100-125%
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13. Wages grew at the rate of 15.4% from January 2017 to January 2021. What would you estimate the rate of wage growth to be from January 2021 to June 2024?
A. 5.4% B. 12.3% C. 23.4% D. 19.4%
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14. The rate of inflation was 7.8% from January 2017 to January 2021. What would you estimate the rate of inflation to have been from January 2021 to June 2024?
A. 19.2% B. 4.5% C. 28.1% D. 12.6%
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15. The monthly mortgage payment as a percent of U.S. median family income was 14.3% as of January 2021. What would you estimate as of February 2024?
A. 10.9% B. 34.1% C. 24.3% D. 8.9%
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16. The median household income (adjusted for inflation) was $72,000 in 2017. What would you estimate to be as of June 2024?
A. $88,000 B. $68,000 C. $79,000 D. $91,000
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17. Which country was the biggest oil producer as of 2023?
A) United States B) Russia C) Saudi Arabia D) China
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Answers:
1. C) The U.S. GDP was $29.4 trillion as of June 2024. (Bureau of Economic Analysis) GDP is a comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health.
2. A) The S&P 500 was 5762 as of Sept 30, 2024. The S&P 500 is a collection of 500 of the largest publicly traded U.S. companies and is considered a good proxy for the market overall because the financial performance of these large companies tends to be closely tied to broad economic trends. Though it can be daunting due to fluctuations over the short term, the stock market remains a strong investment over the long term. For indexes such as the S&P 500, the average returns reflect a diversified range of stocks and vary significantly from the performance of individual stocks. For the 10 years ending in August 2024, the S&P 500 has outpaced the historical average a bit, returning an annual average of 12.9% with dividends. This includes several negative years (-4.4% in 2018, and -18.1% in 2022). These are balanced by years of gains (31.5% in 2019, 28.7% in 2021, and 26.3% in 2023). As always, a reminder that past performance is never a guarantee of future results.
3. D) There were 168.7 million workers as of Sept 2024. The rate of unemployment was at 4.8% as of January 2017. The unemployment rate averaged 13% in the second quarter of 2020, during the pandemic. The unemployment rate averaged 3.8% in the first quarter of 2022. It hit a low of 3.4% in January 2023. The rate for September 2024 was 4.1%. (US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve)
4. D) The CPI (the monthly rate of inflation) was at 2.4% as of September 2024. The Fed cut its rates by 50 basis points (.50%) in September partly due to this number, which indicated a “soft landing” is close at hand and possibly avoiding a recession. The CPI peaked at a rate of 9.1% in June 2022. (Minneapolis Fed)
5. D) In September 2024, the national average price of gasoline was around $3.19 per gallon. Prices decreased in the winter of 2023-24 due to lower demand. In September 2024, prices decreased across all major grades. Prices year-over-year are down 51 cents. (Forbes, U.S. Energy Information Administration)
6. B) In June 2024, the median rent in the U.S. was $1,743. In 2023, the median rent was $2,095. Rent prices can vary by state and apartment size. (Fortune)
7. C) A dozen eggs cost $3.20 as of September 2024. (NerdWallet)
8. A) To be in the top 5% of American earners, you would need to earn at least $290,185 annually. (SmartAsset.com). The U.S. threshold for joining the top 1% stands at $787,712 per earner in 2024. (CBS News).
9. True. The top 1% share of wealth has grown since the early 1980s, with the most substantial rise occurring in the 21st century. (RAND Corporation)
10. The GDP rates for the G7, ranked from highest to lowest: U.S. (10.7%), Canada (5.5%), Italy (4.7%), France (3.7%), Japan (3.0%), United Kingdom (2.9%) Germany (0.2%) (OECD — Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development)
11. B) The U.S. has run a budget deficit continuously since 2001, the last time the U.S. had a budget surplus. The federal government had a surplus of $128 billion that year. The surplus was projected to be enough to pay off the national debt by 2009. However, since then, the government has borrowed an additional $23 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office estimates a budget deficit of $1.8 trillion in 2024. (U.S. Dept of Treasury)
12. C) Between 20-50%. (Food prices have risen 21% since January 2021, as of June 2024.) (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
13. D) Wages grew at a rate of 19.4% from January 2021 to June 2024. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
14. A) The rate of inflation was 19.2% from January 2021 to June 2024, meaning wage growth kept pace with inflation. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
15. C) The monthly mortgage payment as a percent of U.S. median family income was 24.3% as of February 2024, a 10% jump from January 2021. (National Association of Realtors)
16. C) The median household income (adjusted for inflation) was $79,000 as of June 2024, a rise of $7,000 from 2017. (U.S. Census, via Fed Reserve St. Louis)
17. A) The U.S. was the largest oil-producing country in the world in 2023, with output of 21.91 million barrels per day (bpd), marking the country’s sixth year in a row on top. Saudi Arabia’s oil output came in at 11.13 million bpd in 2023. The second-place Saudis own 17 percent of the world’s proven petroleum reserves and are the planet’s largest petroleum exporter. Third-place Russia produced 10.75 million bpd. China was actually in fifth place, at 5.26 million bpd, trailing fourth-place Canada (5.76 million bpd). (Energy Information Administration)
If you got 13 or more answers correct, you are paying exceptional attention to economic trends. Got all 17, right? Give us a call and let us know what you are reading. Got 8 or fewer, correct? Give us a call and we will let you know what we are reading.
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Disclaimer
While this article may concern an area of investing or investment strategy in which we supply advice to clients, this document is not intended to constitute a complete description of our investment services and is for informational purposes only. It is in no way a solicitation or an offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Any statements regarding market or other financial information is obtained from sources which we and/or our suppliers believe to be reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgement of the author on the date of publication and are subject to change.
Past performance should not be taken as an indicator or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. As with any investment strategy or portion thereof, there is potential for profit as well as the possibility of loss. The price, value of and income from investments mentioned in this report (if any) can fall as well as rise. To the extent that any financial projections are contained herein, such projections are dependent on the occurrence of future events, which cannot be predicted or assumed; therefore, the actual results achieved during the projection period, if applicable, may vary materially from the projections.