To help you stay on top of events, the Bowen Asset Management team will be presenting a new regular piece noting the dates when important economic releases happen each month.

Economic news matters to the stock market -- because as the economy goes, so too goes company profitability. Factors such as economic growth, interest rates, inflation, and unemployment often move stock markets.

Stock markets are always rooting for more economic growth, since it usually means more profits for companies, and more profits tend to grow the value of stocks.

Declining interest rates often send markets higher because they are seen as a harbinger of economic growth.

High inflation has the opposite effect, because it signals interest rates will be rising in the immediate or near future, thus slowing economic growth.

Rising unemployment foreshadows lower economic growth, and falling unemployment tells stock investors that growth is on the way. When these data are reported, they can move stocks, while stocks may remain stable if the numbers are generally what investors expected to see.

Economic Release Dates for November

Nov     1         Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI® for Oct

Nov     1         Employment Situation for Oct

Nov     5         CoreLogic Home Price Index for Sept

Nov     5         ISM Services PMI for Oct

Nov     5         International Trade Balance for Sept

Nov      6         Federal Reserve: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting

Nov     7         FOMC Statement and Fed Chair J. Powell News Conference

Nov    11        U.S. Bond Market is closed for Veterans Day

Nov    12        Small Business Optimism Index for Oct

Nov    13        CPI Index for Oct

Nov    14        Producer Price Index for Oct

Nov    15        Retail sales for Oct

Nov    15        Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for Oct

Nov    19        New Residential Construction (Housing Starts & Building Permits) for Oct

Nov     21        Existing Home Sales for Oct

Nov     26        Consumer Confidence for Oct

Nov     26        Fed Meeting Minutes Release from Nov Meeting

Nov     27        Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 3rd Quarter 2024, 2nd Release.

Nov    27        Pending Home Sales Index for Oct

Nov    27        Personal Consumption Expenditures for Oct

Nov    28        US Markets Closed for Thanksgiving

Definitions:

The U.S.-based, not-for-profit educational association ISM, founded in 1915, is the oldest and the world’s largest supply management association serving professionals and organizations in the field. The ISM purchasing managers' indices (PMI®) are monthly indicators of U.S. economic activity based on surveys of purchasing managers at more than 300 manufacturing firms. The reports continue to be consistent and accurate in indicating the direction of the overall economy, in addition to the manufacturing and services sectors. The ISM Manufacturing PMI® report measures new orders, production and employment, supplier deliveries, raw materials inventories, customers’ inventories, and export and imports rates.

Labor Productivity, also known as workforce productivity, measures the hourly output of a country's economy. Specifically, it charts the amount of real gross domestic product (GDP) produced by an hour of labor. Growth in labor productivity is measured by the change in economic output per labor hour over a defined period. Labor productivity is largely driven by investment in capital, technological progress, and human capital development. Labor productivity should not be confused with employee productivity, which is a measure of an individual worker's output.

This ISM Services PMI®  report measures business activity, new orders, employment and supplier deliveries in the services sector.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the monthly Employment Situation Summary, which estimates figures related to employment and unemployment in the United States. It estimates the number of people employed and unemployed in the economy and the number of hours they worked in the previous month plus other related figures. The number of jobs created can signify whether an economy is improving, overheating, or waning.

The International Trade Balance provided by the U.S. Census Bureau reflects trade in goods and services between U.S. residents and residents of other countries each month. U.S. sales are exports and U.S. purchases are imports. The difference between the exports and imports is the trade balance. The June 7 report is for April 2022.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. This basket is used to measure inflation over time and thus the CPI is one of the most frequently used measures of inflation and deflation. It may be compared with the Producer Price Index (PPI), which instead of considering prices paid by consumers, looks at what businesses pay for inputs.

 The Producer Price Index (PPI), instead of considering prices paid by consumers, looks at what businesses pay for inputs

 Small Business Optimism Indicator is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components. It provides an indication of the health of small businesses in the U.S., which account of roughly 50% of the nation's private workforce.

 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to discuss monetary policy changes, review economic and financial conditions and assess price stability and employment output. These meetings take place approximately every six weeks. The June 15 meeting will include a statement from the FOMC and a news conference with Fed chair Jerome Powell.

Retail sales track consumer demand for finished goods by measuring the purchases of durable and non-durable goods over a defined period. Retail sales indicate the direction of the economy and act as a key economic barometer. Sales for the report are derived from 13 types of retailers from food service to retail stores

Industrial Production is an important tool for forecasting future Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  and economic performance. Industrial production figures are also used by central banks to measure inflation, as high levels of industrial production can lead to uncontrolled levels of consumption and rapid inflation. The Capacity Utilization Rate is used by companies to assess their current operating efficiency. It also provides insight into the cost structure of the business because it can be used to determine the point at which unit costs will rise as production increases.

Existing Home Sales data measures sales and prices of existing single-family homes as well as condos and co-ops for the nation overall, and gives breakdowns for the West, Midwest, South, and Northeast regions of the country.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing-Home Sales by a month or two.

The Consumer Confidence Survey® reflects prevailing business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead. This monthly report details consumer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans, and consumer expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total monetary or market value of all finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health. The calculation of GDP encompasses all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments, additions to private inventories, paid-in construction costs, and the foreign balance of trade. In the U.S., the government releases an annualized GDP estimate for each fiscal quarter, which is revised twice to account for improved data.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), or consumer spending, is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, U.S. residents. The PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior. In 2012, the PCE Price Index became the primary inflation index used by the Federal Reserve when making monetary policy decisions.